NFL Preseason Football Handicapping Tips Part 3

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NFL Preseason Football Handicapping Tips Part 3

Post by Admin on Wed Sep 23, 2009 5:15 pm

NFL Preseason Football Handicapping Tips Part 3
By: Jerry Fox

NFL Preseason Football Handicapping Tips Part 3

During the NFL preseason, unique conditions are in place; therefore, successful sports handicapping and investing requires different strategies than those used during any other time of the pro football season. Previously, we’ve revealed some preseason football handicapping tips involving coaching and team motivation. This week, we are going to look at QB ROTATIONS.

One of our favorite NFL Preseason Handicapping strategies is to:

Play AGAINST a team with rookie QBs that will see significant playing time, such as the 2nd half of a game, especially in Week 1.

These young QBs are often late round picks and undrafted free agents, not the cream of the quarterbacking crop. Their unfamiliarity with the offensive scheme and speed of NFL defenders often give them trouble. Even great college QBs can get "schooled" in the preseason. We took advantage of such an opportunity with USC legend Matt Leinart. He was making his NFL debut with Arizona and facing the Patriots, who were favored by 3½ points. It’s rare that we’ll play a team favored by more than a FG during the NFL preseason; however, this was too good to pass up, as we noted in our GAMEDAY INVESTMENT e-LERT write-up:

"While Leinart may indeed have a long and productive career in the league, he figures to be in way over his head here. He’s had little to practice with Arizona and has never even attended an NFL game. Making a rookie debut on the road against the Patriots, who love to confuse opposing QBs with various schemes and blitzes even in the preseason, is not a recipe for success. New England’s defenders will be very motivated to give Leinart a rude welcome to professional football."

This one got ugly early, as the Patriots pasted the Cardinals, 30-3, as we beat the spread by more than 3 TDs.

A couple more preseason handicapping tips are to:

Play ON a team with experienced back-up QBs that have prior experience with the team and will see significant playing time, such as the 2nd half of a game. - This will happen most frequently early in the preseason, especially Week 1. Due to their familiarity with the offensive scheme and speed of NFL defenders, these veteran QBs are much less likely to make critical mistakes.

Play ON a team with a battle between 2 good, motivated QBs for the starting position, especially if the 1st-string offense will see extended playing time in order to have playing time with both QBs. - This can create a huge mismatch, where the 2nd QB and 1st-string offense is going up against an opponent’s backups.

The QB rotation was certainly a key factor in a PRO INFO SPORTS NFL GAMEDAY INVESTMENT e-LERT STAR SELECTION in which we took an underdog Panthers team over Jacksonville, noting:

"An inspired Minter and company will look to slow down the Jaguars’ QB who hit 4 TD passes of 50+ yards last week. While David Garrard was impressive, throwing two of the long TD passes, it was in the second half against tired Miami backups. Garrard will get a much tougher test Saturday night against the Panthers, whose first-team defense held Buffalo without a first down in four series last week. Garrard will face the first stringers because Leftwich will only play briefly due to a sore arm. It will also mean an earlier appearance for Jacksonville’s #3 QB, as well."

With a poor QB rotation against a stout defense, it’s no wonder the Jaguars could manage only 10 points and lost by a TD to the Panthers for another PRO INFO SPORTS NFLX winning STAR SELECTION.

Next time, In Part 4 of PRO INFO SPORTS NFL Preseason Football Handicapping Tips, we'll next take a look at GAMEPLANS.
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